Bears fan survey results: Why there is ‘cautious optimism’ for Caleb Williams (2024)

A record number — more than 4,000 — filled out our fifth annual Chicago Bears fan survey.

Though optimism is common this time of year, as we’ve seen in past surveys, it’s hitting a little differently in 2024. From the quarterback to the new receivers and even to the new punter.

Skepticism remains, though. The stadium situation remains a question for fans, and coach Matt Eberflus hasn’t earned top confidence numbers — yet.

But if there’s any takeaway from the most important poll of the past week, it’s that Bears fans are ready for training camp. Let’s dive in.

We might be seeing a little Justin Fields effect with these numbers. In the 2021 survey, 52.9 percent of respondents selected “4” for their confidence level in Fields’ future stardom. Another 23.1 percent went with “5.” Only 3.1 percent selected “1” or “2.”

Caleb Williams’ numbers are still impressive for someone who hasn’t taken an NFL snap, with 64.2 percent expressing high confidence in his potential, but there seems to be more trepidation for Williams than there was for Fields.

It’s a much better situation for Williams, but maybe the sting from Fields is too recent for fans to fully jump aboard.

Those results screamed “cautious optimism,” which is confirmed here, as a majority of fans selected it as their Williams sentiment ahead of training camp. Only 8 percent don’t think he’ll match the hype, and more than a quarter can’t help themselves — they’re going to get excited.

I’ve been in the camp of, why not let yourself get excited for Williams? This is a rare situation for the Bears to have selected a quarterback with his pedigree.

Said one respondent, “I’m as excited as I can be, but I’m also rational and not expecting him to become Patrick Mahomes or anything in his first season. Steady progress; that’s all that matters.”

Another: “It’s the Bears, Kevin. If you’re sold on a QB being good, you’re only setting yourself up for pain.”

You know what would’ve been a fun exercise? Posing this question a few times throughout the year to see any change. I have to imagine it wasn’t this much of a disparity in January, even if it was a fait accompli.

Interestingly, we saw a massive disparity last year when the question read, “Are you glad Poles traded the No. 1 pick?” A whopping 98.4 percent of you said “yes,” and that trade did eventually lead the Bears to Williams. It is quite the juxtaposition, too, to see how different those situations were.

I took out the draft trade for this question and was slightly surprised that a majority went with Rome Odunze. The shrewd acquisition of Keenan Allen might’ve taken a little more work than drafting Odunze, who was a seemingly obvious choice once he got to No. 9, but fans also view it for the long term.

The Kevin Byard signing could be a sneaky good one come the end of the season. Imagine that defense with the ball-hawking version of Byard at safety.

It’s also a telling sign of what running backs mean in today’s game that the addition of Swift got only 3 percent of the votes.

Allen ran away with this one — maybe I should’ve excluded him from the question for a closer race. The Allen and Odunze additions, combined with Williams’ arrival, definitely have overshadowed the first two free-agent acquisitions, Swift and Byard, who could certainly be very impactful.

Fans, right now, believe Ryan Bates will be the starting center, getting him fourth place. Gerald Everett finished last, but as a tight end, he could certainly be in position to change a game with a big play in the red zone.

Here’s something fun — I copied two choices from last year for this year’s multiple-choice selections, and they ranked No. 1 and 2 … again.

Last year, “not enough was done to help the pass rush” won with 69.5 percent of the vote. Now with Montez Sweat in the fold, maybe lessening the need slightly, the pass-rush gripe fell by 7.1 percent, but fans still want more help on the D-line.

The O-line concern more than doubled, from 14.9 percent in 2023 to 32.7 percent, which is notable considering this group certainly seems improved, but questions linger about durability and who will occupy the center spot.

Our closest poll question! And in this case, fans had several good options to choose from, with Darnell Wright taking the plurality less than 4 percentage points ahead of Gervon Dexter. Tyrique Stevenson, who I’m predicting to get a lot of air time on “Hard Knocks,” finished third.

Last summer, Wright won 68.6 percent of the vote for “which Day 1-2 rookie are you most excited about?” followed by Dexter at 17.5 percent and Stevenson at 12.2 percent.

DJ Moore is a fan favorite, so this comes as no surprise. Teven Jenkins is also a popular player among fans, and he’s up for a new deal after this year, but the injury history can’t be ignored.

If Allen has a sensational start to the season, maybe this question’s results would be different, but his age and contract situation aren’t screaming “long-term extension.” Interestingly, T.J. Edwards might be the easiest player to give a pay raise to now.

No surprise here — Bears fans care deeply about the trenches, and are still unsatisfied, as alluded to in the earlier question. Quarterback coming in fourth was a bit eye-opening but understandable with a rookie under center.

Only five votes (0.1 percent) came in for receiver and cornerback.

Two years ago, 24.4 percent of survey respondents said wide receiver concerned them most. It finished second that year behind the offensive line, and only 0.6 percent said it concerned them least.

Today, the fan confidence reflects Poles’ positional overhaul. I might nitpick and note that cornerback, which finished second, has better depth top down, but there will be no worries about the starting receivers on the field to begin camp this weekend.

Another “B” average for the Bears’ chairman. Fans are generally happy about the direction of the team, and McCaskey is in charge. But his “F” grades went up nearly fivefold, from 2.9 percent last year to 11.4. Frustration over the stadium situation might be a factor, or the decision to keep the status quo at head coach.

Last year, 47.5 percent of fans selected “3” for the Eberflus confidence level, nearly identical to 2024. The biggest difference, though, shows how — despite the team’s strong finish — some fans are skeptical.

This year, 22.9 percent of respondents selected “1” or “2” compared with only 8.5 percent in 2023, when 0.9 percent chose “1.” After only one season as head coach, Eberflus earned more benefit of the doubt than he does now. Still, 25.6 percent of voters selecting “4” for a coach with a 10-24 record is pretty good.

Fans similarly have lost some optimism for Kevin Warren as the chief steward for the franchise. Look how his numbers differed from 2023, when he had been on the job for only a few months, to now.

Kevin Warren’s numbers compared

Now, a wide majority of fans still believe in the direction of the franchise under Warren. I’m not sure Ted Phillips would ever get near 32.9 percent of fans choosing “4” for their confidence level, but Warren’s approval rating has dipped.

If anything, I thought this might be an even wider gap. Though there might be a vocal sentiment against any public help for a stadium, there are certainly enough fans — more than one-third in this poll — who believe in the benefits of a new stadium in Chicago.

That might not be the type of percentage, though, that will help Warren sway lawmakers.

Most fans believe that when all is said and done, the Bears will ultimately play in Arlington Heights. They own the land. It seems like less “work” politically. And until a shovel is in the ground on the lakefront, Arlington Heights is still in play.

More than two-thirds of our respondents are quite excited to see the Bears on “Hard Knocks.” For years, fans have asked for it, they’ve asked me to explain why the Bears were against it, and now it’s happening — adding to an already anticipatory summer.

It is worth noting the 12.6 percent who selected “1,” as there is a segment of fans who apparently are against the team being on the show. They simply could not be interested in watching it, don’t subscribe to HBO or the Max streaming service, or maybe they’re worried about the show being a distraction.

How many teams in the history of the NFL would have two rookies top this list? The 1965 Bears? It was not a shocker to see Williams come in at No. 1, but for Odunze to finish second, way ahead of everyone but DJ Moore, now that is saying something.

When it comes to the purchasing of a jersey, one would prefer it be a player with lasting power. There’s no better player than a rookie for that. And no rookie has more potential long-term security with a team than a punter. There are a lot of Tory Taylor fans, ironically or unironically.

The best of the rest, in order: Jack Sanborn, Jaquan Brisker, Teven Jenkins, Darnell Wright, T.J. Edwards and Keenan Allen.

The annual “best quarterback” award stays on Sid Luckman’s mantel, but his lead shrunk after a record 44.8 percent share of the votes last season. It was a big year for Jay Cutler, who gained on Luckman.

How the ‘best quarterbacks’ did

Williams, who hasn’t played a game, received 34 votes, well ahead of “no one” (22 votes), Erik Kramer (12), Fields (six) and Josh McCown (six).

Shoutout to the following QBs who received one vote: Kent Nix, Virgil Carter, Moses Moreno, Jonathan Quinn, Henry Burris, Will Furrer, Todd Collins, Bobby Douglass, Cade McNown and Rudy Bukich.

We also received a write-in vote for “(Mitch) Trubisky vs. man coverage” and “Russ Wilson a few years back saying he’d consider playing for the Bears.” You guys have jokes.

Another win for “Sweetness,” as Walter Payton more than doubled the vote total of any other player. The top five stayed the same as last year, followed by Matt Forte.

The best of the rest: Mike Brown, Mike Singletary, Cutler and Lance Briggs.

Fields did receive 14 votes — two more than Williams and one shy of Tom Waddle’s 15.

Though the majority sees this as a 9-8 team, in line with the 2020 and 2021 surveys, the fact only 9.9 percent view the Bears as finishing 7-10 or worse is a sign of the confidence brimming among the fans. And it’s fair, plus fewer wins than last season would be a major disappointment.

At 18.9 percent, we saw the largest group of fans say this team could win double-digit games since the 2020 survey (24.8 percent).

(Photo of Caleb Williams: Gregory Shamus / Getty Images)